Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011332 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 932 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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930AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ADJUST SKY COVER FORECAST. BAND OF CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE. GYX SOUNDING INDICATES THESE CLOUDS IN A THIN LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET. SHOULD SEE SOME ERODING OF THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH TIME TODAY... THOUGH THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AND THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SEA BREEZE. WITH LESS HEATING OF THE LAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT A SEA BREEZE WOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET GOING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO IT. 630 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND SKY CONDITIONS AND ADJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO REAL CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM SE TO NW. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW ALOFT HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL TO OUR NE...WE ARE LEFT WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN AS A BIT OF A COL FORMS AT 500MB IN BETWEEN THAT SYSTEM AND A TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE QUITE PREVALENT...ALTHOUGH SUN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW...DISTINCT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SET UP WITH COASTAL AREAS LIMITED TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S...WHILE INLAND AREAS TOP OUT AT AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
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WEAK 500MB TROUGHING BETWEEN WAVES TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH MOVES THRU TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOWS DROP BACK TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AGAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SET UP...WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE UPPER 50S AND INLAND AREAS PUSHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. WILL STILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS THE COOL ALOFT WILL WARM SLOWLY ON SATURDAY...BUT CERTAINLY IT COULD BE CALLED PARTLY SUNNY FOR A CHANGE INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY. ACTUALLY MAY BE MOST SUNNY IN THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AFTER SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE LOW BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARM... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH THE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES COMES A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. A SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST A BIT COOL AS THE OCEAN WATER REMAINS IN THE MID 40S. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO BE HAD... EVEN SO DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY BUILD SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW APPROACHING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT WITH THE FRONT PASSING OVERNIGHT WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION MORE TYPICAL OF AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL SAG TO OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING A BIT TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A NICE NORTHWESTERLY WIND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID MORNING...AND VFR WILL PERSIST THRU SATURDAY. LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIE MAY SEE MVFR IN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY BUT LOOK TO HOLD BELOW SCA. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES REMAIN MODERATE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH GOOD RECOVERY EACH NIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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