Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161915 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 315 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AMOUNTS AND WILL NOT AGGRAVATE ANY RIVERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY HAD TO BACK POPS DOWN FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TO GIVE A BETTER REFLECTION OF TIMING OF SHOWERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPERATURES FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAX TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO LOOK GOOD DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MINS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO LACK OF ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS AND WIND. LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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500MB IS TRENDING TOWARD A SMALLER SCALE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOSED LOW AND REX BLOCKING SETTING UP OVER THE ERN NOAM...AND A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MEANDERING 500MB CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES MID-LATE WEEK. INITIALLY...WEAKER TROUGH IN THE FLATTER FLOW PASSES BY ON SAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...SETTING OFF SOME SCT SHRA...MAYBE A FEW FLAKES IN THE MTNS. AN AMPLIFIED...BUT SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF THE LOW CLOSING OFF TO THE W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY...THE LAST ONE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AS THE 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON AND TUE...A SRN STREAM WAVE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH ONE ROTATION NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW...AND SHOULD START GENERATING STRONG MID-LVL THERMAL CIRCULATIONS DESPITE UNIMPRESSIVE SFC LOW AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MARITIMES AND LABRADOR. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM MON AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAIN...WITH QPF DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING RIVERS UP AGAIN. STILL GIVEN THIS AMT AND TIMEFRAME...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MINOR. BY WED...THE CLOSED LOW COULD BE SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW...AND MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE THE CLOSED LOW ENDS UP...BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...WILL HAVE CHC OR SLT CHC POPS IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND SEASONABLY COOL.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS. THEN VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...PERHAPS IFR OR LOWER...LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCA`S HAVE BEEN ISSUE FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...EXPECTING SUB-SCA WINDS SAT INTO MON...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A PERIOD WHERE NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SCA LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT. S-SE FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT COULD INCREASE TO SCA MON NIGHT AND TUE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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SHOWERS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON CLEARING TAKES PLACE BUT RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS WINDS BECOME WEST BUT GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS RETURN ON SATURDAY. THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MARINE NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...MARINE MARINE...MARINE FIRE WEATHER...MARINE

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