Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 141938 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 338 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WEAK LOW PRES LIFTING NWD WILL BE KICKED OUT TO SEA BY APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. INCREASED GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WX WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT AGAIN WED...WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST. MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE RAW MODELS CAN BE QUITE BAD AT TIMES THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN IT COMES TO DEWPOINT FORECASTS. EXAMINING BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES ACROSS FORECAST ZONES SHOWS THAT MID TO LOWER TEENS DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO EXIST AT THE TOP OF A VERY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING THESE READILY MIX TO THE SURFACE SHOWS THAT MAV GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM CURRENTLY...WHICH MATCHES THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MET GUIDANCE SEEMS MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SOUNDINGS...AND FOR THAT REASON THE DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS BASED SOLELY OFF MET DATA. THE END RESULT IS MID TO UPPER TEENS RH VALUES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS MEETS RED FLAG CRITERIA AND CONSIDERING THAT FIRES HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY THE LARGE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SAT AND SAT NIGHT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS EAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING ALL MODELS QUICKLY BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WITH RAPID CLEARING BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY TURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO A NICE DAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SOUTHERN SYSTEM POTENTIALLY GETS KICKED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY CAUSING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP. BUMPED UP THE TEMPERATURES FROM BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE THURSDAY DUE TO H85 TEMPERATURES AND FULL SUN. THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. QPF FROM THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DUE TO ITS SOURCE REGION AND MODELS MOVING IT ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THU. GUSTY WLY WINDS WED AFTERNOON...AROUND 20 KTS...AT ALL TERMINALS. LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY. MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR WED THRU THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS ON THE WATERS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE SNOW HAS MELTED IN THE RECENT WEEKS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... CONTINUED SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE RISES ON ALL AREA RIVERS BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL... RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>021. NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004- 006>013-015. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ LEGRO/MARINE

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