Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 152309 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 709 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 710 PM...UPDATED T/TD/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CLEAR SKIES AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. PREVIOUSLY...TONIGHT THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING CALM. DUE TO THE CLEAR/CALM WINDS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AND BECOME RATHER COLD. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AT THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY LOOKS SUNNY AS THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER. ALONG THE COAST THE DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE INLAND AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S. FOR THOSE WITH ANY DOUBTS ABOUT THE MUCH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES...JUST KEEP IN MIND THE WATER TEMPERATURES OF THAT GREAT BODY OF WATER CALLED THE ATLANTIC IS RUNNING ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT CLEAR BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. BY MORNING THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING. IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE THE PTYPE LATE MAY BE BRIEFLY A MIX AT THE ONSET. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRIDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT WE SHOULD JUST SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF IT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOK LIKE IT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...DYNAMICS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT SHOULD BE FAST MOVING. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGH. THE NAM IS STRONGER AND BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES... WHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE SURFACE LOW GETS ORGANIZED OFF THE JERSEY SHORE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS THIS DEVELOPS INTO AN ALL RAIN EVENT. THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES PAST CAPE COD BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH MELTING WE GET IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...THIS SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR. LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE SOME RAIN COULD FALL SATURDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN RAIN AND FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS...ALTHOUGH BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AND MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FRIDAY AS SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEGIN TO BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH....AND AS TEMPS FALL RH WILL RISE AS WELL. ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RH IN THE 15-20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON...THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM TO LESS THAN 10 MPH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME SOUTH AT ONLY 10MPH LATER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY THE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL FAIL TO BE MET. && .HYDROLOGY... CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING AROUND FLOOD STAGE AND CURRENT TRENDS WILL LIKELY KEEP IT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS RIVER POINT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...

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