Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 152309
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
709 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
710 PM...UPDATED T/TD/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CLEAR SKIES AND
QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

PREVIOUSLY...TONIGHT THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING CALM. DUE TO THE CLEAR/CALM WINDS
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AND BECOME RATHER COLD. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AT
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY LOOKS SUNNY AS THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER. ALONG THE COAST THE
DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
QUITE COOL AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE INLAND AREAS
MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S. FOR THOSE WITH ANY DOUBTS ABOUT THE
MUCH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES...JUST KEEP IN MIND THE WATER
TEMPERATURES OF THAT GREAT BODY OF WATER CALLED THE ATLANTIC IS
RUNNING ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT CLEAR BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. BY MORNING THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING. IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE THE PTYPE
LATE MAY BE BRIEFLY A MIX AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND EXPECT WE SHOULD JUST SEE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF IT.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOK LIKE IT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST
OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN...DYNAMICS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND IT SHOULD BE FAST MOVING. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF
A DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGH. THE NAM IS STRONGER AND BRINGS
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES... WHILE A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE SURFACE LOW GETS ORGANIZED
OFF THE JERSEY SHORE...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS THIS
DEVELOPS INTO AN ALL RAIN EVENT. THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES
PAST CAPE COD BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY BUT THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH MELTING WE GET IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN...THIS SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE SOME RAIN COULD FALL SATURDAY. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS...ALTHOUGH BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AND MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FRIDAY AS SEAS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEGIN TO BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH....AND AS TEMPS FALL RH WILL RISE AS
WELL.

ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH RH IN THE 15-20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON...THE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY CALM TO LESS THAN 10 MPH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH AT ONLY 10MPH LATER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY THE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL FAIL TO BE MET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
AROUND FLOOD STAGE AND CURRENT TRENDS WILL LIKELY KEEP IT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS
RIVER POINT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...


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