Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231532 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 15Z UPDATE... MORNING SUN HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE RIGHT DOWN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL WET SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DUISCUSSION: COLD UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 50 NEAR THE COAST SEEMS REASONABLE. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE. THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS THE PERSISTENT QUASI- STATIONARY LOW OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT LOWER POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOPING THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STALLED UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION EITHER FULLY OR IN PART FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE TYPICAL APRIL GRAUPEL EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL... THOUGH GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE CORE COLD AIR WITHIN THE LOW SLOWLY MODERATES. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LONG TERM...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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