Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 052150 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX 550 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH. WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO KEEP GRIDS FRESH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING OVER 15 MPH AND RH VALUES ARE LOW KEEPING WILDFIRES GOING. LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR TOMORROW BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY UNDERFORECASTING. ALSO RERAN FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN QUEBEC THAT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH INTO OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA TOWARDS MORNING. COOLER THEN LAST NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW INTO EASTERN MAINE...OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WARM DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE WESTERLY WIND FIELD INCREASES NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF MAINE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. THEN...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EWD THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. STILL SOME SIGNS HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD DOWN THRU THE MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SEND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OUR WAY. AT THE VERY LEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTLINE COOLER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A SERIES OF S/WV TROFS WILL ROUND THE TOP TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARBY...ANY OF THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF ANY SUCH FEATURE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ANY DAY IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM TO EJECT EWD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN HOW MODELS BREAK RIDGING DOWN IS LOW CONFIDENCE. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS POP AT LOW LIKELY FOR NOW...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW AS THE WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD...BUT EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL BE MONITORING THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT RELATIVE TO THE WATERS...AS A FURTHER S SET UP COULD LEAD TO PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGEST RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS MUCH OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE...FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE A BIT LESS BUT STILL HIGH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MY CWA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>028. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028. NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>015. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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