Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230155 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 955 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PCPN IS SLOWER THAN MODELED MOVING THRU THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE HAD TO BUMP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS. RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER. SOME OF THE RADAR RETURNS ARE HAVING TROUBLE TRANSLATING TO THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE, WITH MOST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN BEING BACK IN VERMONT AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND MOST AREAS WILL GET SHOWERS THIS EVENING, DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. NOT A TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, LOCALLY MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING INLAND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE A COOL, BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BLOCKING PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWERS. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS DOWNWIND OF THE WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MOUNTAINS. IN SPITE OF H850 MOISTURE...THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WELL- MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL REACH 20 MPH. IN THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INCREASING TOWARDS THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONGER TERM FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE STAGNANT CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SUPER BLEND VERY CLOSELY. INCREASED POPS FOR PORTLAND AND THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE TREND TOWARDS LATER TUESDAY WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM... MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHORT TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM... EXPECT SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT INNER WATERS JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SHORT TERM... NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AND THE WIND FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY WET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE KENNEBEC AT AUGUSTA. WHILE MANY ARE RUNNING HIGH...ALL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEAR TERM. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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