Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 210728 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 328 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRECEDED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AT 06Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A 999 MILLIBAR VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ONSHORE FLOW IS GENERATING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION. LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED STRAY STROKES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT MOMENT...WITH A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS TO BANKFULL BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT FLOOD WATCH WERE MADE. WE`LL SEE RAIN TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WE`LL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM AT TIMES ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR AND IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN AND SCT TSTMS MOVE IN. RAIN MAY BE LIGHTER AT KHIE WHERE WE WILL SEE THE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. ALSO SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE IN THE NORTH. EAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS RAIN MOVES EAST. VFR WITH LCL MVFR IN FOG TONIGHT THEN AREAS OF MVFR ON WED IN SHOWERS. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. MORE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT IS STILL OCCURRING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ002>015. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SCHWIBS/MARINE

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