Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 050029 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX 829 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING WINDS GUSTING OVER SOUTHERN NH AND KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING. THIS IS EXACERBATING SOME ONGOING WILDFIRES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND GUSTS UP IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH/ SW MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND THE GOING FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S LOOKS REASONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT PRESSES QUICKLY TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA BY END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNSHINE AND OFFSHORE WIND WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MOUNTAIN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL UNDER WEAK RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS LATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE E MID WEEK ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO RETURN NWD INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MILD TEMPS AND FAIR WX LOOK TO BE THE NORM THRU FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY TO WARM FRONT LINGERING IN THE AREA. SMALL SHIFT IN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE COULD MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX. ANY HIGH PRES ROLLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL TEND TO SEND THE FRONT RETREATING SWWD. WHETHER THIS STOPS AT KBGR...KBDL...OR BEYOND IS THE REASON FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS AT A NW TO SE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WITH DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA WILL BE WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...BRIEF MVFR PSBL TONIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP AROUND THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO REACH MINIMUM SCA CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME. CONDITIONS DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THERE IS SOME SIGNS FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IT WERE TO DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... .A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH... WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS... COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS... WILL CREATE MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING. GIVEN PROJECTED WIND AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FINE FUEL CONDITIONS... WE`VE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>009-011-012-015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
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&& $$ UPDATE...HANES

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