Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301603 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1203 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY...SUNSHINE IS LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOUDS WILL FILL INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL BY NOONTIME. MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AND SPRINKLES HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINE THIS MORNING...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY...INTO THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL BE OVER MAINE...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. PREV DISC... UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT WE SIT STUCK BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES. THE FORECAST AREA IS JUST FAR ENOUGH E TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ERN LOW CENTER STILL. WITH GENERAL NELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND NWLY ALOFT. CURRENTLY THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING STRETCHED AND DEFORMED ACROSS NH. THIS LIFT IS LEADING TO DEEPER CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WILL LINGER INTO MORNING...AND MAY POP UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING TAPS THE INSTABILITY ALOFT. AGAIN THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL ME...WHILE WARMEST READINGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF TO SEA...SO WE GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH AS THIS WILL REMAIN SLOW GOING. AS PRES GRADIENT DECREASES FRI...SEA BREEZE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THIS WILL KEEP THE COAST ON THE COOLER SIDE...WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS MAKE A RUN AT THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS 500 MB BLOCKING BREAKS DOWN JUST TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...INITIALLY WE WILL BE BENEATH STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL SEE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A FAIR DAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS INLAND...BUT A DISTINCT SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP...AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S ON THE SHORE....TO MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND. A WEAK 500MB TROUGH CROSSES NRN ME ON SUN...AND WILL LKLY JUST PRODUCE A ROUND OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHRA POP UP AS WELL...BUT POPS CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN SLT CHC...AND THIS LIMITED TO THE MTNS. HIGH SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE COAST AS FLOW BEHIND THAT WEAK WAVE MAY KEEP SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS OT OUR SE AND SW RETURN FLOW HELPS BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S IN MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE COAST WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRING A CHC OF SHRA. IT TURNS COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI. WILL SEE SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT HAS SET UP OVER NH. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ANY CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT HOWEVER. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRI NIGHT THRU MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS STAY WELL BLO SCA LVLS FRI NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT WINDS PICK FORM THE SW IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED. . && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN MODERATE...WITH GOOD RECOVERY EACH NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THOUGH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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