Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 220021 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 821 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE A TURN IN THE MARITIMES AND WILL DRIFT WEST BACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WILL BE MONITORING LATEST GUIDANCE REGARDING THE NEED TO ADD GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL TO THE FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IT AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN ENDED EARLIER TODAY. MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 3". THE HIGHEST REPORT WE RECEIVED WAS 4.27" IN FALMOUTH. WATER VAPOR SHOW LARGE BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A LONG WAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ONLY GLANCE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN DOES OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND A MESOLOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LOWER 60S IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER THIRD OF AND INCH TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE 2500 FT) COULD SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.... HEART OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE FARE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50. UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NET AFFECT WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL EDGE UP SLIGHT ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER LOW WILL DO A LOOP AROUND THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S SOUTH. CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR OR BETTER AS RAIN MOVES OUT. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE ALLOWED THE GALES TO EXPIRE AND ISSUED A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ONLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FOLLOWING RIVERS ARE ABOVE OR FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER...AND THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT SKOWHEGAN...NORTH SIDNEY...AND AUGUSTA. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL BE BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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