Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251635 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM...QUICK UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH FEATURES SOME ADJUSTING OF POPS...MAINLY TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPKLS OR FLURRIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN THE KENNEBEC/PENOBSCOT VLY REGIONS. SW ME AND SRN HALF OF NH LOOK MAINLY DRY. 950 AM...STACKED CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER DOWNEAST ME THIS MORNING...AND A LITTLE PULSE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF IT...WHICH IS HELPING TO SET OFF A SHSN/RA AND SPKLS/FLURRIES THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD SHIFT SWD AND OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY...WITH A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA /WITH JUST SN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ MOVING AROUND 19-21Z...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WHICH GET UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AND THE ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. POPS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR/NCAR 3KM. TEMPS/SKY WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS WELL...WITH MORE SUN IN SRN NH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES THERE. PREVIOUSLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SOME OF THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND COULD CAUSE A SIMILAR EFFECT TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY... A TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HANDLING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BY NEXT FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT WHITEFIELD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND AS WELL. LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR WITH WITH POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY AND SUNDAY. LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN THAT THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT STORM MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE SPARED FROM SHOWERS TODAY AND WILL SEE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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