Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 212101 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
501 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE A TURN IN THE
MARITIMES AND WILL DRIFT WEST BACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH. NO HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...AND RIVERS ARE ALREADY
RESPONDING TO RUN OFF/SN MELT. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR
POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SO DON/T SEE MUCH OF A
NEED FOR A WATCH ANY LONGER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN ENDED EARLIER TODAY.
MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 3". THE HIGHEST REPORT WE RECEIVED WAS 4.27"
IN FALMOUTH.

WATER VAPOR SHOW LARGE BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A LONG WAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL ONLY GLANCE THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT LEADING TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDINESS THROUGH
THE EVENING.

EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN DOES OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT SOUTH WINDS
RETURN BY DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
A MESOLOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LOWER 60S
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER THIRD OF AND INCH TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE 2500 FT) COULD SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....

HEART OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. CLOUDY
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE FARE BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS WEAK SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NET AFFECT WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL EDGE
UP SLIGHT ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

UPPER LOW WILL DO A LOOP AROUND THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE
THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S SOUTH.

CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR OR BETTER AS RAIN
MOVES OUT. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ALLOWED THE GALES TO EXPIRE AND ISSUED A SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ONLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS TO A
MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS ARE ABOVE OR FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD
STAGE...THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER...AND THE KENNEBEC
RIVER AT SKOWHEGAN...NORTH SIDNEY...AND AUGUSTA. THESE RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALL BE BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO


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