Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LEADING IMPULSE SUPPORTING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PULL NEWD THROUGH THE
DAY...AND PULL RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEST
DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX AS OF 14Z. HOWEVER...CAPPING REMAINS IN
PLACE.  WITH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING...A FEW CELLS MAY STRENGTHEN
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR THESE CELLS...ALTHOUGH
CURRENT THINKING IS SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH
ONGOING STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY...WITH LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UA ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE RICH SURFACE MOISTURE FEED IS QUITE SHALLOW...WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE AT BEST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP.
OTHER THAN MAKING NEAR TERM CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
WEATHER...HAVE LEFT REST OF FORECAST THE SAME.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
LIKED THE HRRR MODEL FOR HOW IT INITIALIZED AND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WERE APPROACHING
KCLLAT 11Z. THE HRRR BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TO THE NORTH...BOTH KCXO AND KIAH SHOULD SEE A WINDOW
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT 15Z THROUGH 18Z.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WAS PROVIDING A STRONGER
CAP OVER THE REMAINING SITES...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ERODE THIS CAP
LATER THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...KHOU AND KSGR SHOULD SEE
SHOWER OR THUNDER CHANCES AFTER 14Z. KLBX AND KGLS WILL HAVE A
MORE DIFFICULT TIME. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE
MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF A MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT AFFECTED SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING
MOVE UP THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE REMNANTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDDAY.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  70  88  68  88 /  90  50  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  72  88  70  88 /  50  40  50  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  73  83  73  80 /  30  40  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48



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