Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200947
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL BE STARTING OUT THE WORK WEEK PLEASANTLY WITH PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
TODAY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE
BUT LL WILL BE DRY WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD AND THIS WILL SWING OUR WINDS EASTERLY AND BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE IN ABUNDANCE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING OVERHEAD. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO SETX TUESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NETX INTO SWLA. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED S/W AT 700MB
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND INTERSECTING WITH
THE BOUNDARY. WESTERN AREAS MAY BE WELL CAPPED BUT SOMEWHERE
(PROBABLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I45 CORRIDOR THE CAP MAY END AND
THE TSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CLIMB ABRUPTLY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE IN 2000+ CAPE ENVIRONMENT...OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-4000 SO IF STORMS
SUCCEEDED IN FORMING THERE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MUCH HIGHER
BUT AGAIN THE CAP MAY HAMPER SUCH DEVELOPMENT.

RETURN FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT WARMER WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAP WEAKENS
GOING INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT OVER CO/KS PUSHING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WELL EAST INTO THE STATE. THE
FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE REACH IS SUSPECT
AS TO IT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA PER THE
GFS...ECMWF SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE BRIEF PENETRATION OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN STALLS BEFORE GETTING
ANOTHER PUSH SATURDAY MORNING PERHAPS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET ON FRIDAY.  DEEP MOISTURE WOULD BE
POISED SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AND READY FOR ACTION ON SATURDAY
THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER JET WOULD PLACE SETX IN A BROAD ENTRANCE
REGION WITH A TRAIN OF EMBEDDED S/WS COMING OUT OF MEXICO COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE. SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
A LITTLE WETTER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

45


&&
.MARINE...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HAVING
CLEARED THE UPPER TEXAS COAST /STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL
BEND TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS...
WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT
FROM NOW THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE BAYS AND MID-AFTERNOON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  55  80  64  83 /   0  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  57  80  65  85 /   0   0  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  66  77  71  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14


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