Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060824
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCT SHWRS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS NW AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SLOW MOVING STRONG/SEVERE TSTM IS
APPROACHING BURLESON COUNTY FROM THE WEST...SO WE ARE WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY WITH THAT CELL. CONSENSUS FROM MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THAT WE WILL SEE SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA. WILL LIKELY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP COVERAGE
DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH.

THE GENERAL PATTERN OF CHC POPS FOR NW AREAS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR SE AREAS OF SE TX WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BASED ON
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SW
TO THE NE WITH HE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMUP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE SW
U.S. LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MAKE IT DEEPER INTO SE
TEXAS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO EDGE INTO
THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME COOLING FROM THIS FEATURE AND A DECENT CHC OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 33

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS CONTINUOUS FLOW WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE PERIODS OF CAUTION FLAGS OR ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ELEVATED TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
STRONG SE FLOW. TIDE LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  71  85  71  85 /  30  20  30  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  72  86  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  74  81  75  82 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



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