Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
516 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER THIS MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PROMPTING A FEW WARNINGS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. BUT NOW ALL THAT REMAINS IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED ALONG THE COAST WITH PRESSURES FALLING IN WEST
TEXAS AND UP TOWARD KSPS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SPILL OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE NORTHWEST AREAS
AFTER 2 PM. SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE EXIT REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL USHER IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY COLD ALOFT AND THE LL
MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT
VS THE LL S-SW FLOW WILL HELP TO FAVOR MORE DISCREET STORMS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. CAPE VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PEAK AT 2300-3000 WITH HEATING TO 84 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME
THE CAP THAT SW WINDS AT 850 WILL BE REINFORCING. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS BUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT FASTER STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL AMOUNTS...1 INCH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO THE MAX. AS THE STORMS MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THE CAP WILL GET STRONGER THE CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND WITH DECREASE IN HEATING 5-8PM STORMS SHOULD BE MORE OF
THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE IN HOUSTON AND IF THEY SURVIVE TO THE
COAST. EXPECT THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO
HOUSTON LINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT (THOUGH
OUTFLOW MAY OUTRUN THE FRONT) AND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT AND
A VERY PLEASANT MONDAY. SOME CIRRUS SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA
THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL JET SO WILL PROBABLY NOT
HAVE FULL SUN BUT A GREAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING NONETHELESS.
PACIFIC HIGH SLIDES EAST TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THIS SHOULD TURN OUR WINDS FROM NORTH ON
MONDAY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY PULLING BACK THE MOISTURE AND WITH A SLOW RISE IN RAIN
CHANCES. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIPS DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATE WED AND EARLY THU WHICH MAY HELP
TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLLIDING WARM FRONT
AND COLD FRONT OVER OK AND NETX/LA BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 AND SW AT 250 MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND COULD GET CLOSE FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF
IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES WHILE GFS IS FOCUSING MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT TO NONE AT
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. 45

&&
.MARINE...

OUTFLOW WINDS FROM LATE NIGHT INLAND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE BRIEFLY
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20
NAUTICAL MILES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID-
MORNING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
RED RIVER TODAY. AS THIS LOW EJECTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH... REACHING
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS AND SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY
REACH THE MARINE AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT... MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
MAY REQUIRE CAUTION FLAGS ON MONDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... ANTICIPATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  57  75  55  79 /  30  30   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  62  78  57  80 /  20  30   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  77  66  77 /  10  30   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE...14



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