Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010903
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST AT FREEPORT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THERE WAS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN TEXAS AND THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD. ALL
MODELS BRING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TRINITY...POLK...AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING.

THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD AND HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. OTHER THAN THE THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERNS...THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
FAIRLY TIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PERIOD.

40

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST AS THE SEAS BREEZE DEVELOPS. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LAND BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG FETCH OF SE WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS ELEVATED.

39

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VAR WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND
10KTS FROM THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  82  59  81 /   0  10   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  84  61  83 /   0  10   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  67  79  68  79 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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