Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190157
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
857 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HEADING TOWARD OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SPC WAS NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING
ANY WATCHES WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX. IF THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
IS CORRECT...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO AND
ACROSS OUR AREA.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL ENDURE AN HOUR OR SO OF TSRA BUT AFTER
THAT THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY SETTLE DOWN. A DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING A BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE MID EVENING.
THE HRRR INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT
MODEL FOR TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED AND IF SKIES CLEAR...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SOME
LOCALLY DENSE WILL BE HIGH. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE AND RAISED POPS AREA WIDE DUE
TO ONGOING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
OFF THE COAST...AND FOR DEVELOPING STORMS OUT WEST THAT THE MODELS
HAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX
DURING A COUPLE OF EPISODES TONIGHT...THE FIRST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THE SECOND FROM LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED OR STRONG THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORM ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST HAS BEEN STEALING MOST OF THE INFLOW
MOISTURE...THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STORMS
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WERE BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT COOLING CLOUD TOPS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
WAS BEING FORECASTED BY THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM
AND 2 AM OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THESE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  56  75  54 /  50  20  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  85  61  78  57 /  50  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  81  66  77  66 /  50  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42



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