Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251818
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
118 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA...A FEW STORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND ARE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THE VICINITY OF KGLS TERMINAL BY
19Z OR SO. CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTING OFF AS WELL AND SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING AT MOST SITES. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY COMING BACK AROUND
TO THE SW AND SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE MESO-LOW TRACK. MORE
W TO SW FLOW EXPECTED AT CLL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE
TONIGHT AND MIFG SHOULD IMPACT MOST SITES. AREAS WITH THE GREATER
RAINS MAY SEE VISBY OF LESS THAN 2 MILES AND EVEN A VV003 CIG
DEVELOP. WINDS ON SUNDAY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND
MOISTURE RETURN GETS BACK UNDERWAY FOR MONDAY. SPEAKING OF MONDAY
IT STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT FOR THE HOU TRACON AND AREA
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE POINTING TO A SLOW MOVING LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS POSSIBLY LINED UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SAGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. STAY TUNED.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE WRN EDGES OF OUR CWFA. EXTRAPOLATED TIMING OF THE
LINE/ACTIVITY HAS MOST OF THE PCPN MOVING EAST OF THE I-45 CORRI-
DOR JUST BEFORE NOON. BUT WITH THE END OF THE STORMS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BRING VERY WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO SE TX FOR
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT CALDWELL TO HONDO TO SOUTH OF DEL RIO. SOME OF
THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AND APPROACH SE TX LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF SE TX. SE TX LIES IN A 125-130 KNOT RRQ AND THIS
WILL ENHANCE LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH NOON. STILL EXPECTING SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON IF/WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND HOW
WET THE GROUND BECOMES. PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH WET GROUNDS
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ON SUNDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.

ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SW AND STRONG PVA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. CAN`T RULE OUT GETTING A FEW
SHRA/TSRA SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. THINGS DETERIORATE QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE RED
RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SE TX WILL LIE IN A 95 KT LFQ ON
MONDAY AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES AOA 2900. LI VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -10 AND HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 200-300.
FCST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.00
INCHES. CURRENTLY THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING ON MON
MORNING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE CAP
ACTUALLY ERODES AS FCST. DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THE CAP WILL ERODE. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX EARLY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING. STILL A BIT UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SO WILL CONT TO MENTION SHRAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MIN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH SFC DEW
PTS IN THE 40S AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
TUE-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  69  87  69  81 /  40  10  20  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  70  88  71  81 /  80  10  20  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  74  79  72  79 /  80  10  20  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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