Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VSBYS VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT
WOULD EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF EITHER IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO PREVAIL
BEFORE 15Z AT MOST TAF SITES. FCST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK CONDUCIVE
FOR TSRA TODAY BUT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 20-24Z IN WHICH
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. A STRONG S/WV WILL APPROACH
SE TX OVERNIGHT AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN
08-10Z ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MIXING SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THIS MORNING...
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2
MILES OR LESS. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MID-
MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING... BUT
CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AS OF 4 AM CDT. THESE STORMS MAY CLIP
THE NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BRYAN TO LIVINGSTON LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS/ BUT THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET AIDING THIS COMPLEX VEERS THIS MORNING.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS PLACED THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS JUST WEST OF THE REGION... STRETCHING THROUGH COLORADO
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK 500 MB SPEED MAX WAS NOTED
CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DEL RIO AND THIS FEATURE... IN
COMBINATION WITH THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR 100 KNOT 300 MB JET OVER
THE REGION... WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE... THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL ONLY CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. 850 MB FLOW WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A CAP TO BUILD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION... WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS RUNNING ROUGHLY 18 TO 19
DEGREES C BY MID-AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /LOW TO MID 80S
INLAND/... FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VICTORIA AND COLLEGE STATION
KEEP THE CAP FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE DOES ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO... AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CERTAINLY WANDER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
/COURTESY WESTERLY 850-300 MB MEAN WINDS/. WHILE A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ANTICIPATE THE CAP TO WEAKEN
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS SUNRISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TREKS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES.

THE REGION COULD SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ROUND OF WEATHER ON
FRIDAY... AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE WITH AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE NEARS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY... IT WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE... COMBINED WITH
INLAND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG... STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM... AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...
LOOK TO CREATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE PACIFIC FRONT REACHES THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...
RAISING CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL /AND POTENTIALLY
ISOLATED FLOODING/ WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

IN THE EXTENDED... THE FRONT/REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE
REGION WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER
JET ON SATURDAY AND... WITH THESE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN LOOK
TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY...
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN
DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY... LEADING TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER /WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/
ON MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE REGION BY TUESDAY... WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF
WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST NEXT TUESDAY WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE DEVELOPING. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  71  84  69  87 /  30  30  50  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  84  73  87 /  20  20  50  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  79  72  79 /  20  20  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43


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