Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 300856
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE BAJA CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR OUT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD DURING MID WEEK PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND NAM12 WERE
STRONGER AND GENERATED A MORE MOIST AIRMASS THAN DID THE GFS. EVEN
WITH THE DIFFERENCES...ALL THREE MODELS APPEARED TO CONTINUE THEIR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEPT A FAIRLY LARGE
850 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEPT THE HIGH IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHED THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THINK THAT
THE ECMWF MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE AND DECIDED TO PARE BACK THE RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY A
BIT.

THERE WERE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. STAYED WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING LOWER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE
AREA TODAY...AND THIS QUIETER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND AROUND
3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. THE WATERS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL STILL SHOW A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT RACING OFF THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
IN ITS WAKE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE NEEDED. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  60  81  63  79 /  20  10  10  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  61  82  64  80 /  10  10  10  20  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  66  77  66  74 /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...42



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.