Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181150
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VARYING CEILINGS AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TERMINALS ARE CREATING A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES... WITH ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS PRONE TO FOG
/KCXO...KUTS...AND KLBX/. EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
AROUND MID-MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS... COUPLED WITH THE
APPROACH OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO... MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STORMS COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY... BUT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED GROUNDS SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATION FOG.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER IN THE WAKE OF THE EVENING BOW ECHO AND HEAVY RAIN.
COMPLEX IN THE GULF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE. LIGHT NE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NEARING MATAGORDA BAY AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM OVERHEAD BUT ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
EVENING STORM COMPLEX. LOOKING AT THE MORNING SOUNDINGS VIA ACARS
OUT OF IAH/HOU THE CAP APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN MODELS FORECAST
BY 1.5-2.0C AT 850MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT STORMS THIS
MORNING OVER THE AREAS HARDEST HIT THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL
STILL SEE SOME OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT LIKELY NOT
SEVERE. THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THINGS GET DICEY AGAIN AS TWO
IMPULSES...ONE CROSSING THE BIG BEND REGION AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
IN THE PACIFIC TAP WEST OF BROWNSVILLE TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH 78-80 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS MAY
BE OVERDOING THE LL MOISTURE AND UNDER FORECASTING THE CAP. THIS
LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PARED BACK THE POPS AND CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIBERTY COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PULSE TYPE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1.5" APPEAR SLIM GIVEN STORM MOTION AND MORE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONG STORMS. HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD
WATCH BUT THE GROUND IS WET AND IF STORMS SLOW DOWN OR HAPPEN TO
CLUSTER UP DO TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS THEN SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AROUND THE REGION. AFTER
THESE TWO DISTURBANCES DEPART THE AREA IN THE EVENING RAIN CHANCES
DROP OFF. THE COLD FRONT IN CO/KS/NE SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND COME
THROUGH SETX SUNDAY EVENING AND/OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES INTO
NETX THEN OFF TO LA/MS ENDING THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND WE GO BACK TO
EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST PACIFIC AIR WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION AGAIN FROM THE WSW AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN AREA. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN WITH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA
FRIDAY. ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD
RETURN BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHT SO A GOOD CHANCE TO DRAIN OFF THE
RAINS AND FOR THE RIVERS TO DROP.

HYDRO...OVER THIS WEEKEND SOME RIVER FLOODING ISSUES MAINLY ALONG
THE LOWER REACHES OF THE LAVACA/WEST MUSTANG/SAN BERNARD BASINS.
OUT OF BANKS TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

PNS STATEMENTS ISSUED EARLY HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND REPORTS AND
GREATER RAIN AMOUNTS.

45

MARINE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A MUCH LARGER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE FORECAST... WITH ONSHORE FLOW
BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FOUR
CORNERS LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTION
CRITERIA WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS RESUME
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION... WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  62  85  56  75 /  30  30  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  64  84  60  78 /  50  10  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  69  81  67  75 /  40  20  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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