Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 030715
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID MAY 03/0000 UTC THRU MAY 06/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF...

ANY MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE 00Z NAM/GFS DO NOT APPEAR
TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUE...

PREFERENCE...GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE

IN GENERAL...THE MODEL MASS FIELDS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS
OF BOTH POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE...

PREFERENCE...NON CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE

THE 03/00Z NCEP MODELS TENDED TO MAINTAIN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE
BY THE 03/00Z UKMET TENDED TO GET IT BACK TOWARDS A MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE CANADIAN STARTED TO LAG THE NCEP AND ENSEMBLE
ENSEMBLE MEANS NOTICABLY BE THE END OF DAY 3...SO BELIEVE A NON
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WOULD WORK BEST HERE.

...SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH FL...

FORCING OVER THE AREA IS GENERALLY WEAK FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS WAS TENDED TO FORM A CLOSED FEATURE WEST OF
THE FL PENINSULA/KEYS WHAT HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.
AT THIS POINT...WOULD RECOMMEND AGAINST THE GFS IDEA AND ALLOW
MORE ENERGY TO CROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE ATLANTIC.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$




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