Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 180633
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VALID APR 18/0000 UTC THRU APR 21/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF IN NORTHERN MN EARLY MONDAY
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM WAS ON THE EASTERN/DEEP SIDE OF THE SPREAD AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.  THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER, WHILE THE UKMET PICKED UP THE PACE, LEADING TO CONVERGENCE
AMONGST THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE.  THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING
MOST FAVORED A COMPROMISE OF THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE.  TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT TRENDS AMONGST THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, PREFER A COMPROMISE
OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WITH
LOWERED/AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CHANGES SEEN IN THE
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE.


SYSTEM SLIPPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA
FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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