Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 050517
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
117 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID MAY 05/0000 UTC THRU MAY 08/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE
  SOUTHWEST U.S. WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT TO THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SPAGHETTI HEIGHT CLUSTERING ACROSS THE WEST BY
THU MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES.
THE UKMET WAS A BIT FASTER TO DROP THE ENERGY SOUTHWARD BUT IT
QUICKLY GOT BACK CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY 18Z THU.


SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 05/00Z GFS AND THE 04/12Z ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 08/12Z...WITH MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS BEING CONFINED TO THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  THIS
ALSO KEEPS THE NEW GFS AND THE PREVIOUS ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE UKMET...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...WERE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE BY 08/00Z AS
THE FEATURE SCOOTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THINK A COMPROMISE
OF THE 05/00Z GFS AND THE 04/12Z ECMWF SHOULD MINIMIZE SOME OF THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES.


LOW PRESSURE LIKELY NEARING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE/END
OF
  THE WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 04/12Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS CONTINUED TO SHOW
RELATIVELY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH POSITION OVER THEIR PAST FEW
00/12Z CYCLES.  THE 05/00Z GFS SFC LOW SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY
TRACK...PUTTING IT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLNS.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES...THINK THE 12Z GFS FROM
MONDAY STILL REPRESENTS A USEFUL OPERATIONAL PROXY FOR THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$




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