Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 180405
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VALID APR 18/0000 UTC THRU APR 21/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF IN NORTHERN MN EARLY MONDAY
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM WAS ON THE EASTERN/DEEP SIDE OF THE SPREAD ALOFT WHILE
THE 12Z UKMET WAS SLOW AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING MOST FAVORED A COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM SLIPPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA
FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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