Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 040456
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1255 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

VALID MAY 04/0000 UTC THRU MAY 07/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION...

...TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA...

PREFERENCE:  AFTER 00Z WED...GFS OR ECMWF
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

MODEL MASS FIELDS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  AT THAT POINT THE NAM/CMC BECAME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
OTHER MODELS.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THEIR
SOLUTION...RECOMMEND EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SOMEWHAT MORE WEIGHTING
TOWARDS THE GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 04/00Z NAM MADE NO MAJOR SHIFT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...SO IT
REMAINED ON THE WEAK/FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ON DAY 3 ALONG WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE UKMET/ECMWF.  THE GFS REMAINED NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MON-TUE...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$




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