Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 030452
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1252 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID MAY 03/0000 UTC THRU MAY 06/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION...

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUE...

PREFERENCE...GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE

IN GENERAL...THE MODEL MASS FIELDS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS
OF BOTH POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE...

PREFERENCE...NON CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE

THE 03/00Z NCEP MODELS TENDED TO MAINTAIN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  AS A RESULT...THE 02/12Z
CANADIAN REMAINED A SLOW OUTLIER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 02/12Z
UKMET TENDED TO BECOME A FAST OUTLIER TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF INTERACTING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM AND A SHORTWAVE ORIGINALLY PART OF THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM. THINK A NON CANADIAN/UKMET MODEL COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER
HERE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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