Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 040652
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

VALID MAY 04/0000 UTC THRU MAY 07/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF...

...TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA...

PREFERENCE:  AFTER 00Z WED...GFS OR ECMWF
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

MODEL MASS FIELDS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  AT THAT POINT THE NAM/CMC BECAME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
OTHER MODELS.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THEIR
SOLUTION...RECOMMEND EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WED...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE 04/00Z
MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEPT CONTINUITY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE 04/00Z ECMWF DROPPED A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHICH WAS DEEPER
AND QUICKER THAN ITS EARLIER RUNS.  WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND
NOT QUITE AS FAST...THIS IS MORE IN LINE WHICH THE GFS SHOWED.
THE UKMET WAS A DEEP/FAST WESTERN OUTLIER.  GIVEN THE AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...COMBINED WITH MORE AGREEMENT
FROM THE ECMWF...THINK A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE IS BEST.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MON-TUE/CENTRAL
PLAINS WED...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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