Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 031625
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID MAY 03/1200 UTC THRU MAY 07/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA...

PREFERENCE:  AFTER 00Z WED...GFS OR ECMWF
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NAM MOVES TO NEAR THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION...RECOMMEND EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: 60 PERCENT GFS TO 20 PERCENT EACH 06Z GEFS MEAN AND
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE TOWARD THE WEAK AND FAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE GFS
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.  RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT SOME SLOWING
OF THE ECMWF...BUT STILL CONSIDERED TOO QUICK COMPARED TO ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MON-TUE...

MODELS SHOW GOOD LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.  REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON RAINFALL.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

JAMES

$$




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