Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 060501
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID MAY 06/0000 UTC THRU MAY 09/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUED ITS TREND OF A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AS
THE SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CLOSES
OFF...ESPECIALLY LATE ON DAY 1 AND PERSISTING INTO DAY 2.  THE 00Z
GFS...WHILE SHOWING SOME MINOR RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES...REMAINED
FAIRLY STEADY WITH ITS PROGRESSION.  SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR
FROM THE 00Z GFS AND 05/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLN AT THIS POINT.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE 05/12Z CMC GLOBAL AND UKMET WERE
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AS WELL.


SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS...AND THE 00Z NAM
REMAINING ON SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NO REASON TO CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF THE LATEST GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF.


LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 05/12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN...06/00Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE 06/00Z NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED TOGETHER INTO EARLY DAY 3 WITH
RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH FOR THE GFS
REPRESENTED A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT COMPARED WITH THE 05/12Z RUN.
THE NAM INTENSITY...HOWEVER...LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPECT. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW ON A TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS CANADIAN GLOBAL.  A QUICK AND
INCOMPLETE LOOK AT THE 06/00Z UKMET SHOWS IT TAKING THE LOW
NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE AND ON A TRACK TO THE
EAST OF THE ECMWF.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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