Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 061640
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT

THE NHC AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK PREFER THE INTERMEDIATE
PLACEMENT OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OVER THE
MORE NORTHEASTERN 00Z UKMET OR MORE SOUTHWESTERN 12Z GFS FOR THIS
CYCLONE.  PER NHC`S LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, SHOWING A 60%
CHANCE OF TROPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS, WILL WEIGHT THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE STRONGER 12Z NAM LATER IN
THE PERIOD.  DUE TO THE EARLIER COORDINATION, THIS PREFERENCE IS
MADE BY DEFAULT.


WEST/PLAINS/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z ECMWF, AND 12Z NAM CLUSTER WELL AS A
CONSENSUS AND ARE A GOOD FIT TO THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN
SOLUTIONS.  THEY ARE PREFERRED WITH THE LOW STREAKING BY MICHIGAN
SATURDAY MORNING AND CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST/THE
PRESSURE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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