Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271047 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 647 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SKIES WERE CLEARING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WITH THAT...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NW TIER OF COUNTIES. NO DENSE FOG WAS BEING REPORTED AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. THEREAFTER...ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKE STATES...WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL BE EXITING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...TAKING THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT. A MORE POTENT ONE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. YET ANOTHER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK TUE. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB DROPPING TO 3-5 DEG C AND THIS COOL AIR WILL BE REINFORCED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 5-7 KFT LAYER THIS MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS LAYER WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVE... ALTHOUGH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE N TOWARD TUE MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH PERHAPS SOME MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE CITY SOUTH CAROLINA...4 TO 8 DEG BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...5 TO 10 DEG BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST BEGINS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. INITIALLY VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...CLOSER TO 70. H5 SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH WED. THIS SHARPENING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR RIDING UP OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH DEEPEN AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HEADING INTO WED WILL PRODUCE RAIN SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH ON TUES WILL INCREASE UP CLOSE TO AN INCH BY WED MORNING AND 1.5 INCHES BY LATER ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH INCREASING ON SHORE FLOW AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SHALLOW COOL AIR REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A SUNNY START WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN PCP BY WED. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCP THROUGH WED AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST REACHING CAPE FEAR BY WED NIGHT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GREATEST QPF WILL COME OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURS MORNING WHEN GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPS AT H85 REMAIN BELOW 5C UP THROUGH TUES NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE ON SHORE AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT UP FROM THE GULF COAST. TEMPS SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DROP TUES EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN KEEPING A MORE STEADY TEMP LATER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND PCP ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES BUT WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS FOR WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH CLOSED 540 LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AS IT DIGS DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURS INTO EARLY FRI UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ON THURS AS SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AND PCP WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW THROUGH THURS AND EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI AS BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRI WITH TEMPS RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL AND ABOVE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80 OR ABOVE BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT FOG AT LBT MAY LINGER TIL 13Z. AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST TRIES TO DROP SOUTHWARD, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP FOG AT BAY BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING. VFR FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. NORTHERLY SURGES WILL WORK THEIR WAY DOWN THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SURGES WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS TO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND THEN NEAR 20 KT AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE N TO NNW TODAY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO N TO NNE LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WATERS ON TUES WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST LATE TUES THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE TRACKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST REACHING CAPE FEAR BY WED NIGHT. THEREFORE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUES WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH WED. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FURTHER AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL GIVE A DECENT PUSH OF SE-S WINDS THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE STRONGER OFF SHORE WINDS DEVELOP ON BACK END OF LOW BY THURS MORNING AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASING ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH WED WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN SEAS FROM LESS THAN 3 FT TUES AFTN UP NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3 TO 6 FT UP THROUGH AT LEAST THURS MORNING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...STIFF OFF SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP NW WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS WITH LOWER SEAS NEAR SHORE. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI IN CONTINUED NW FLOW UP TO 20 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/MRR

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