Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180436 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1236 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES BY 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DISTINGUISHABLE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IS SUPPORT ALOFT FOR PCPN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLATED AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TO LIKELY COVERAGE TO ARRIVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NEAR TERM GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING HAS DIMINISHED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR...AND THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA SPREADING IN FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN- RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH END SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED.THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NE. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID- AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THROWING SE WINDS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPANDING FROM THE BEACHES AND SHOULD PUSH OUT BEYOND 20 MILES FROM SHORE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 5 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NE TO N WIND...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT N-NE WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E. SPECTRAL ENERGY TO REMAIN SOLIDLY LOCKED IN 8-9 SEC BANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHOP OVERNIGHT. NO TSTMS OR DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE 0-20 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE WINDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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