Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261451 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1051 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBS. FRONT IS STILL CREEPING SOUTHWARD AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM OAK ISLAND TO FLORENCE SC. A THICK BLANKET OF STRATUS FOLLOWS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NO PRECIP PRESENT. FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT AND CHANGED CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DATA...WHICH SHOWS A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST. EVEN THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW-END PROBABILITY THOUGH. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH AN EYE TOWARDS LOWERING THEM BY A CATEGORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: TODAY A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER FEATURES RANGING FROM FOG TO SHOWERS TO A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SE NC TO SOUTHERN INLAND SC. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS NORTH OF AN E TO W COLD FRONT WHICH PRESENTLY BI-SECTS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE APRIL SUN WILL HEAT THE LOW- LEVELS OVER INLAND SC IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR PEAK OF DIURNAL WARMING...SPARKING A CHANCE AT TSTMS. ALTHOUGH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SWIFT SEAWARD MOTION COULD BRING POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO SEVERE LIMITS...AND SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS OVER SC. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE NORTH WINS OUT LATER TONIGHT AS TD VALUES DROP...WITH POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION STABILIZING THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. POP VALUES DWINDLE AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TREND INTO EARLY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MINIMUMS MONDAY OF UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH...AND THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA HOLDING ON THROUGH TUES. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN CLOSE TO A HALF INCH MON AFTN THROUGH TUES AFTN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OFFSET THE CAA WITH 850 TEMPS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 5 C THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 50 IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD NORMAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING CLOUDS AND PCP NORTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST REACHING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD GUIDE THE LOW UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST POSSIBLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. N-NE FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP OVER THE AREA ON WED INTO THURS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH FRI AS THIS DEEP LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAINLY BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAY BE A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ON THE NEXT SET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE AS SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BLUSTERY OFFSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS RUNNING 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS 4NM OR LESS THIS MORNING N OF CAPE FEAR. HEATING OVER INLAND SC THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW STORMS OVER THE SC WATERS...POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER SC LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS ABATE...BUT COULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AS N WINDS INCREASE A BIT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MON WITH DECENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY TUES NIGHT AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT MOST OF THE TIME BUT MAY REACH UP TO 5 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE MON NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF LOCAL WATERS INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATE WED WITH A STRONG E-SE SWELL ON FRONT END OF SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIVING SEAS UP TOWARD SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TO START WITH SPIKE WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ

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