Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040613 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 213 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE MAY TEMPERATURES. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE BAHAMAS MID-WEEK...AND MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW PROVIDING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY DAY BREAK. THIS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY IN E-SE RETURN FLOW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING BACK FROM LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON UP TO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES. ALSO EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINT TEMPS CONVERGE UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SEASONABLE MAY SUNSHINE ON TAP THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 600MB AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA AS NOTED IN H7-H5 VORTICITY FIELDS BUT WITHOUT FANFARE OTHER THAN MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD-UPS WITH ASSISTANCE FROM MAY SUN ANGLE AND RESULTING AFTERNOON INSOLATION. MAXIMUMS A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 80 WARMEST INLAND...AND MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TUESDAY LOOKS WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HYBRID/SUB-TROPICAL LOW OFF MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THUS THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO ONCE IT DEVELOPS...AND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK. HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A HYBRID- LOW WILL DEVELOP...BECOMING WARM CORE AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM 80 DEGREE WATERS IN THE GULF STREAM...BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY DUE TO CHANGE IN WATER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST...AND GOOD VENTILATION THROUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POP/WX IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED POP FOR THE THU-SUN TIMEFRAME...HIGHEST CHANCE AT THE COAST. STILL...CANNOT FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP AS THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS SO WIDE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...NOT MUCH SYNOPTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE GIVING US SOUTHEAST FLOW. THERE IS FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. CRE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT INLAND FOG EITHER. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. MONDAY...BECOMING VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT A VERY LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN UNDER 3 FT MOST WATERS WITH A A VERY SLOW DECLINE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD BACKSWELL FROM LOW MOVING OFF INTO THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS WITH MINIMAL WAVE ENERGY. A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY DRIVE ONSHORE GUSTS TO 17 KT INSHORE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE CHOP...OTHERWISE ONSHORE 10 KT MON/TUE. WITH LIGHT CHOP AND WEAK SWELL DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 7-9 SECONDS EXPECTED...EXCEPT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THE CHOP MAY BRIEFLY BECOME THE PRIMARY ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON A HYBRID-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMATION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING IN WEAK STEERING FLOW. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME KEEPS WINDS E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS PRIMARILY 10-15 KTS...HIGHER AT TIMES. OF COURSE...THESE COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES. PROLONGED E/NE FETCH COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP FROM 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY...TO 4-7 FT THU/FRI...AND AN EXTENDED SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL

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