Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS BEFORE IT DEPARTS OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...CAPTURING THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS AND BRIEFLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DEEPENING. A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURGE OF STRONG NORTH WINDS IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MOREHEAD CITY/NEW BERN AREA NOW AND SHOULD REACH CAPE FEAR IN A FEW HOURS...PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND SUNSET. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LARGELY END ANY INSTABILITY...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-400 J/KG AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PRODUCING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS IT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MEANS THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO 55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE 500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED TO SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY TO AFFECT KILM/KLBT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR AND NORTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KTS ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SURGE NOW DROPPING ACROSS CAPE LOOKOUT AND MOREHEAD CITY SHOULD REACH CAPE FEAR AROUND 6 PM...DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND SUNSET. BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS PROBABLY REACHING 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE THIS SURGE SHOULD BE STRONGEST. MARINERS HEADING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SITUATION AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF CONFUSED AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND STABILIZES. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD BUILD QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN. GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA/SGL

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