Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 170514 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 114 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT OVERALL AND NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59 INTERIOR LOCALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT. WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE TUE-THU. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS. EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING JUST UNDER 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS. THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW WINDS LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ

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