Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 181712 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 112 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...A VERY SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR- THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12 KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12- 14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A RATHER TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGER RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.