Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201924 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...CIRRUS SHIELD EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA INTO AN OVERCAST AND CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES/HEATING HAS LEVELED OFF OR EVEN DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO. SUNLIT AREAS WEST OF THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY ARE SEEING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FROM GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC TO WINSTON-SALEM NC. STORM MOTION APT TO TRANSPORT THIS INITIAL SQUALL FEATURE OFF TO THE NW OF OUR AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. VAPOR ANIMATIONS HOWEVER SHOW THAT UPPER SUPPORT EDGING EAST...MAY HELP CONGEAL A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR 21Z-22Z/5PM-6PM. THIS COULD THEN TRANSLATE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IMPLYING PERHAPS A MORE FAVORED MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR SE INTERIOR NC ZONES THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINES UP WITH CURRENT SPC RISK ASSESSMENT AREA THAT SUGGESTS STORMS GRAZING OUR VERY NORTHERN SE NC INTERIOR FROM BENNETTSVILLE TO RED SPRINGS TO ELIZABETHTOWN CORRIDOR. MAIN THREAT STRAIGHTLINE WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND DIME-QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND DROPS SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. I DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NICE WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO GET OVERRUN BY SOME WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOON THEREAFTER AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE EXIT OF THIS FEATURE SOME DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN MANAGES TO PUSH IN FROM POINTS NORTH BRINGING BACK A DRY FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES A SOLID CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW 10-15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT...DECREASING THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL BE NW ALL TERMINALS 8-12 KT. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOWERING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT KFLO/KLBT AND VCSH FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...AND AMEND AS NECESSARY BEFORE 22Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS NEEDED FOR OUR MARINE ZONES FOR S-SW WINDS 15-20 KT AND 4-5 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER PORTION...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO NW AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WINDSPEEDS WILL TAPER TO 10-15 KT. FOR THIS REASON THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS PLANNED ONLY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY THIS ISSUANCE. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND FAVORED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WESTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CYCLONE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS INCREASE AS WELL TO 10-15 KNOTS. INITIAL SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND TWO FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP AGAIN LATE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ONLY VERY SLOWLY SAGS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY LAST INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ITS LENGTH WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHALL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY OF WIND DIRECTION BOTH THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THAT IS EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY VEER MORE TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY.
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&& TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH POST NEW MOON PHASING WILL BRING ELEVATED LOWER CAPE FEAR TIDES...REACHING AROUND 5.65 AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON BETWEEN 11PM AND 1AM TONIGHT. LOW IMPACT DOWNTOWN FLOODING MAY OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED BEYOND THAT AS THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCES TAIL OFF. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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