Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270045 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 845 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID WEEK. SEASONABLE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...ELEVATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG A SECONDARY BUT RAISED CONVERGENT LINE BEHIND THE ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE EVEN AFTER THE DAYS INSOLATION HAVING ENDED. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE THE PCPN ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE ESE AT A DECENT CLIP. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE EVENING...THE AVBL INSTABILITY DECREASES AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...AS SFC RIDGING OVERTAKES THE FA...ALBEIT WEAK...AND THE FA BECOMES MORE-SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE FROM MID TO UPPER FLOW AROUND THE NE STATES UPPER LOW. POPS HAVE BEEN RE-WORKED FOR THIS EVENING...WITH AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS A DEGREE OR 2 BUT MORE-SO WITH THE SFC DEWPTS. THE MUCH DRIER AIR...LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS...TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE ILM CWA FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN MON HOURS. HAVE HELD ONTO OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS A BIT LONGER THEN EARLIER THOUGHT. ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO KEEP FOG ISSUES AT BAY. PREVIOUS....................................................... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ABOUT TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT IS APPROACHING GEORGETOWN IN SC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ITS WAKE AND HAVE STAYED SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. I HAVE ALREADY LOWERED EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES AND MAY LOWER THEM EVEN FURTHER. OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITION TO THE COLD SURGE...IS A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK THAT GUIDANCE SHOWS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE AND CONTINUED MIXING. ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE WE COMBINE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. IF WE GET ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...IT WILL START THERE...OVER OUR SOUTHERN- MOST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE RETAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SPOTTY AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE SLIGHT CHANCE WOULD IMPLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND IS ONLY INCLUDED DUE TO NEAR-UNIVERSAL INSISTENCE BY GUIDANCE. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPRESS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT. WHILE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY...COOL NW FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND 3-5C WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...RISING ONLY TO AROUND 70 DURING THE AFTN. CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO RESTRICT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING GRADIENT AND CONTINUED LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW MINS TO DROP TO BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AT THE BEACHES. WEATHER BEGINS TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BENEATH A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIVE A RAPIDLY MOISTENING COLUMN...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP BEGINNING AFTER DARK TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO AROUND 70...BUT A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS CLOUD COVER KEEPS LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW 50. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. A CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE UP THE COAST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS BY THURSDAY THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. I HAVE EXTENDED THE LIKELY POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WARRANTS CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BUT THE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CONCLUDED BY THAT POINT. 48 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FROM WPC LOOK PROMISING WITH AN INCH OR SO OVER MOST AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN RELAXES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL WITH NEXT WEEKEND SHAPING UP AS DRY AND SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...MVFR CIGS ARE STILL THE RULE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPO IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS KMYR/KCRE EARLY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS GENERALLY DECREASING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND MVFR CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCT THROUGH THE EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7K SHOULD SCT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LAYER ALONG WITH LIGHT NW-N WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY EARLY MORNING FOG FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY BR DOES DEVELOP HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KLBT/KILM WHICH SHOULD SCT OUT FIRST. KCRE AND KMYR COULD ALSO HAVE BR ISSUES IF WINDS GET LIGHT ENOUGH DUE TO THIS EVENINGS RAIN. VFR EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GENERALLY SCT LOW/HIGH CLOUDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING. VFR FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...CURRENTLY...SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE N TO NE IN DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THE LOCAL CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS HAS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND MURRELLS INLET. THIS TEMPORARY WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPDATE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST OF OVERALL NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT. MAY ISSUE MWS OR SMW TO IDENTIFY THE VARIABLE WINDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE WIND INDUCED WAVES FROM THE PREVIOUS SSW-WSW WINDS OF THE PAST DAY AND A HALF RULING THE SIG. SEAS WITH DOMINATING PERIODS AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS. PREVIOUS......................................................... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RATHER DIFFUSE...WITH A WEAK CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A BRIEF SURGE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING SLOWLY FROM NW TO EAST. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SEAS WILL REACH 3-4 FT. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP FOLLOWING THE VEERING WINDS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH THE WINDS WITH 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET EARLY THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SIX FOOTERS LATER THURSDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS DROP OFF SOMEWHAT FRIDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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