Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171923 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO SATURDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER AND THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION. THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NE. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST. INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP. SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH THE LATEST PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6 PM. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE WINDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK/DL

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