Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200203 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1003 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 915 PM SUNDAY...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES EXCEPT HORRY COUNTY. THIS BASED ON THE LATEST PROGRESSION AND INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THE NORTH TO SOUTH BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...NOW EXTENDS FROM WHITE LAKE ACROSS BOLTON TO SHALLOTTE. AT THE MOMENT...THE OVERALL LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG CELLS DEPICTED BY WX RADAR. THE WEAKEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS A RESULT OF THE SHALLOW SFC BASED MARINE STABLE LAYER...HAVING PUSHED PARTIALLY INLAND DUE TO THE SE ONSHORE FLOW THAT CROSSED THE ADJACENT COOLER SST SHELF WATERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL BE IN A RATHER WARM AND BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT MOVES STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE JUST ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY. SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR AN EVENT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. THE MET HAS SIX HOUR POPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE 18-00 UTC TIME FRAME IN LBT AND ILM. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS AND FINE TUNE FOR THE TIMING FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA CITING THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A NICE TUESDAY AND PEACEFUL WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. PAIR THIS WITH ZONAL MID FLOW AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A SMALL RISE IN POPS ON THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MIDLEVEL DOWNSLOPING PREVENTING DEEP MOISTURE. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF LOW END POPS. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES WORK TO PROVIDE LIFT ATOP SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF WITH A COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY FOG...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE SHOULD ALSO NOTE A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEPICTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA TO TAPER OFF AND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE...WITH MVFR/IFR CONTINUING DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 905 PM SUNDAY...TOR WATCH 82 REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM EDT FOR THE 1 ILM SC COASTAL WATERS...FROM THE NC-SC BORDER TO MURRELLS INLET. THE STABLE SFC BASED MARINE LAYER OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MWS CRITERIA WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IF 1 OF THESE STORMS FURTHER PULSES UPWARDS THEN SMW CRITERIA BRIEF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. OVERALL...WINDS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL BUILDING PHASE...WITH 3 TO 5 FT BEING COMMON DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 5 TO 6 SECONDS AS WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS IN ITS WAKE. SMOOTH SAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS NEARLY MINIMAL WIND AND SEAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS THOUGH LIGHT WILL VEER CONSIDERABLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES UNTIL A S TO SW FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. MORE VEERING IS SLATED FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND VERY SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. WITH THIS FRONT STALLING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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