Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021136 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 736 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS CONFIRMING THIS. SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. DECENT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF PATCHY FOG. OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS STRENGTH/LOCATION. THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY. OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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