Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030217 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS 13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MJC/DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ

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