Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 171014 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID- LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY... WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA. AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE ILM CWA. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS. EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING. THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N. SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE- AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR MARINE...DCH/REK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.