Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013 RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR FIRE WEATHER...SRP

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