Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THIS LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING RIGHT UP THROUGH CAPE FEAR WITH A DECENT N-NE COOLER WIND FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONGER WARMER AND MOISTER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS WAS MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING WEDGE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLEVIATE THE SHARP TROUGHING AND FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING MORE OF AN E-NE FLOW PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PCP INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS SEEN BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ON THE BACK END WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE CHC OF PCP. BUT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST TOWARD MORNING...SOME BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE PCP ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP MAINLY COASTAL AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PCP REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF LOW WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND SHOULD PRODUCE DIMINISHING PCP CHANCES AND SOME DRYING WHILE GREATER PCP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.CLOUDS AND MOIST E-NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT. WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE TUE-THU. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WNA MODEL SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS. THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW WINDS LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ/DL

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